GBTC recorded its first inflow after 78-day run of redemptions

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded an estimated $63 million net inflow during the May 3, 2024 U.S. trading session, its first positive daily flow since GBTC began trading as a spot-bitcoin exchange-traded product on January 11.

The reversal ended what contemporaneous research described as a 78-day run of outflows. It also arrived during a broader rebound: the U.S. spot-bitcoin ETF group generated an estimated $378.3 million in combined net inflows on May 3, its first positive session since April 23 and its largest since March 13.

Those figures measure estimated fund creations minus redemptions for one U.S. trading session. They are not ETF trading volume, cryptocurrency-exchange volume or a direct observation of bitcoin purchases made at a single price.

A break in the defining ETF flow pattern

GBTC entered the spot-ETF market with a much larger asset base than the newly launched funds because it had operated as a bitcoin trust since 2013. Conversion introduced an ongoing redemption mechanism that had not existed under the previous structure. Investors could then redeem shares while competing products from BlackRock, Fidelity and other issuers accumulated assets.

Grayscale’s quarterly report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 3 documented the scale of that transition through March 31. The trust reported 317,940,000 shares redeemed and 1,540,000 shares issued during the first quarter, reducing outstanding shares from 692,370,100 to 375,970,100.

Its bitcoin holdings declined from 619,525.9291702 BTC on December 31, 2023 to 335,932.8104680 BTC on March 31, 2024. Grayscale attributed the reduction principally to approximately 283,124 BTC withdrawn for share redemptions, plus approximately 1,844 BTC used to pay its sponsor fee.

The filing and the May 3 daily-flow estimate cover different windows. The quarterly figures establish the magnitude of the earlier redemptions but do not independently certify the $63 million single-session estimate.

The broader complex also recovered

Fidelity’s FBTC led the reported May 3 inflows with $102.6 million. Franklin Templeton’s EZBC followed with $60.9 million, while several other products recorded smaller positive flows. WisdomTree’s BTCW and Hashdex’s DEFI were reported at zero, so the session should not be described as one in which every listed fund received money.

The combined $378.3 million inflow followed seven consecutive negative sessions for the U.S. group. K33 Research subsequently calculated that global bitcoin exchange-traded products received approximately 8,106 BTC on May 3, making it the strongest global ETP-flow session since March 13 under K33’s methodology.

Dollar flows and bitcoin-denominated global flows are separate measurements. The former covers the U.S. spot products and estimates creations less redemptions in dollars. The latter includes a wider international ETP universe and converts flows into bitcoin terms.

What the reversal established

The verified development was a break in GBTC’s uninterrupted post-conversion outflow pattern. It did not establish that redemptions had permanently ended, that GBTC had eliminated its fee disadvantage or that bitcoin’s market price would continue rising.

The May 3 result nevertheless mattered institutionally because GBTC had been the dominant counterweight to inflows received by newer U.S. products. One positive session reduced that drag and showed that creations remained possible even after the trust had lost hundreds of thousands of bitcoin during the preceding quarter.

Flow estimates are normally assembled after the market close from changes in fund shares or assets and can be revised. They also cannot identify the motivation of individual investors or prove that ETF activity caused any simultaneous bitcoin-price movement. The defensible event-day conclusion is narrower: GBTC received its first estimated daily net inflow as an ETF, while the U.S. spot-bitcoin fund group recorded a substantial one-session recovery.