U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-session outflow streak

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded an estimated $14.8 million net inflow for the January 26, 2024 trading session, ending four consecutive sessions of aggregate outflows, according to Farside Investors’ fund-by-fund historical dataset.

The positive result was narrow. Coinburn calculates from Farside’s January 26 row that nine newer products collected $269.9 million while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, or GBTC, lost $255.1 million. The difference was the reported $14.8 million group inflow. It was the first positive session since January 19 and showed that demand for the new funds could offset GBTC redemptions, but only just.

Four negative sessions preceded the turn

Farside’s records show estimated net outflows of $87.4 million on January 22, $106.1 million on January 23, $158.3 million on January 24 and $79.8 million on January 25. Those observations total $431.6 million of net withdrawals across four U.S. trading sessions by Coinburn’s calculation.

GBTC dominated the selling. Its estimated daily outflow reached $640.5 million on January 22 before falling to $515.3 million, $429.3 million, $394.1 million and then $255.1 million over the following sessions through January 26. The January 26 figure was therefore $139 million, or 35.3%, below the January 25 estimate. That comparison measures successive fund-flow estimates; it is not a price return or a count of bitcoin sold at one identifiable time.

Contemporaneous research from NYDIG and Coinbase Institutional had already identified GBTC redemptions and liquidation-related selling as major complications in interpreting the first weeks of ETF trading. Coinbase cautioned on January 26 that the scale and timing of displaced positions remained unclear. That uncertainty prevents the flow figures from establishing who ultimately bought or sold bitcoin.

BlackRock and Fidelity supplied most of the offset

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the January 26 inflows with an estimated $100.1 million, followed by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust at $87.1 million. ARK 21Shares added $46.4 million and Bitwise added $30.9 million. The remaining positive estimates were small, while several products recorded zero.

Coinburn calculates that BlackRock’s IBIT had accumulated approximately $2.17 billion of estimated inflows from January 11 through January 26 using Farside’s daily rows. The milestone demonstrated rapid adoption of a regulated bitcoin wrapper from a large traditional asset manager. It did not mean BlackRock itself had made a directional $2.17 billion wager: trust shares were created for investors, and the fund’s prospectus described a product intended to reflect bitcoin’s price before expenses and liabilities.

The Securities and Exchange Commission had approved the exchange rule changes permitting spot bitcoin products on January 10. The approval applied to listing and trading standards; it was not an endorsement of bitcoin, a guarantee against losses or a finding that other crypto assets had received equivalent regulatory treatment.

Bitcoin rebounded in a different market window

CoinMarketCap’s historical UTC snapshot placed bitcoin at $41,816.87 on January 26, with a 24-hour change of 4.72%. That observation describes an aggregated BTC market snapshot over a continuous global trading day. It does not share the same clock as the U.S. ETF session, and bitcoin has no single consolidated closing auction.

The simultaneous price rebound and return to positive ETF flows were consistent with easing pressure from GBTC, but they did not prove causation. Fund-flow estimates measure creations and redemptions, not exchange trading volume or the precise timing of underlying bitcoin transactions. Authorized participants can use inventory, and published estimates may be revised.

The defensible January 26 conclusion is consequently limited: inflows into the newer products narrowly exceeded GBTC’s withdrawals after four negative sessions. Whether that represented durable new demand could not be determined from one $14.8 million observation.